Modelling Community Preparation for Natural Hazards: Understanding Hazard Cognitions

JOURNAL OF PACIFIC RIM PSYCHOLOGY Volume 3, Issue 2 pp. 39–46 Address for correspondence: David McIvor, School of Psychology, University of Tasmania, Locked Bag 1342, Launceston TAS 7250, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] In areas susceptible to experiencing the consequences of natural hazard activity, a key facet of risk management involves encouraging citizens to adopt measures that increase their capacity to cope with and adapt to the consequences of hazard activity (Paton, 2006a). Traditionally this process has been based on the assumption that providing information about hazards and associated protective measures will lead to people preparing. Recognition that this assumption is unfounded has stimulated a growing body of research that argues that decisions to prepare reflect people’s interpretation of hazards, their consequences, and information about them rather than information per se (Lindell & Whitney, 2000; McIvor & Paton, 2007; Paton, 2008; Paton, Smith, & Johnston, 2005; Perry & Lindell, 2008). An issue with this work is that it has tended to focus on only one hazard. This article builds on one such study (Paton, 2008) to explore two issues. The first is involves exploring whether the explanatory framework can account for differences in levels of preparedness across different hazards. If the model is to have any practical utility as a guide to risk communication it is important that it can demonstrate a capacity to predict preparedness for different hazards and communities. The second issue involves conducting a qualitative analysis of the beliefs and reasons that underpin decisions to prepare to further examine the validity of this model and explore ways in which it might be developed. A full description of the model and its development can be found in Paton (2008) and in the Paton, Houghton, Gregg, McIvor, Johnston et al. article (2009) in this volume. The variables in the model were selected as a result of their ability to provide insights into how people deal with uncertainty and make judgements about they might deal with events that they (generally) have not experienced. The key elements only are summarised here. Modelling Community Preparation for Natural Hazards: Understanding Hazard Cognitions